Importance of forex.

Summary Outlook: On Friday, October 3rd, at 0830ET/1230GMT, US September employment data will be released. We expect the headline NFP number will come in roughly in line with consensus forecasts of -105K, but think the unemployment rate may edge up to 6.2/6.3% versus market expectations of a steady 6.1% unemployment rate. The risk is that the headline NFP shows a larger drop in jobs, potentially owing to strike- or hurricane-related adjustments. Interim economic data (weekly claims, labor differential in Consumer confidence report, ISM manufacturing employment dropping from 49.7 to 41.8) have shown a deterioration in overall labor market conditions, so the risks are clearly skewed to a weaker NFP. We would not be surprised by a NFP job loss of -150/-170K. And be alert for a negative revision to August NFP. But the NFP report is not the only show in town tomorrow, as markets will anxiously be watching to see if the US House can pass the financial sector rescue package. We are highly optimistic that additions to the Senate-passed bill will lead to the bill's passage, and we think this will be greeted enthusiastically by investors. The result could be a significant rally in stocks and a rush to riskier assets, which in FX means buying of JPY-crosses (e.g. EUR/JPY or AUD/JPY). The rescue package may also alleviate credit market strains, reducing demand for USD from bank funding needs. Trading Strategy: Because we think the risks are skewed to a weaker NFP reading, we anticipate an initially negative USD reaction. But we think USD strength this week is likely to see heavy buying of USD on such weakness, leading to a short-term reversal of the initial reaction. From then, we look for JPY-cross buying to materialize based on the prospect of House passage of the rescue bill. If correct, such buying should put a floor under non-JPY dollar pairs, like EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The rest of the session could then see a grind higher in the JPY-crosses, sending EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD higher on the day, aided by week-end short-covering in EUR/USD/profit-taking on long USD positions. In concrete terms, a NFP reading of between -100K/-150K could see EUR/USD jump higher by 60-90 pips from pre-release levels, followed by heavy selling then sending the pair down 100-120 pips from its post-NFP reaction high. From there, we then expect that short-covering and outright buying of EUR/JPY will see EUR/USD grind higher. We will be closely watching a long-term trend line that guided the EUR higher since early 2002, currently at 1.3910/30 area. We would stop out (exit) of long EUR/USD positions if it trades below 1.3710/20, roughly 30 points below today's low. We think a short-squeeze higher in EUR/USD is likely on strength over 1.3950/60. Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.